This article is about the potential end of the one-child policy in China. This policy, originally used as a policy to constrain a growing population size, may now change as the country is experiencing a shrinking group of workers.
"Mr. Ma's comments come as many Chinese demographers call for an end to the family-planning policy, which was implemented in 1980 to manage a population explosion encouraged by Chairman Mao Zedong. They argue that propping up birth restrictions threatens the country's labor force, which has been the backbone of its economic growth in recent decades."
From this article, I agree and feel like changing the policy may be best now for their economy. I would not have said so during 1980 when this policy was implemented. However, as the article states, "Demographers have known for years that China's population decline could threaten its economy." From what you all know about population control and China, do you see how this change in policy may be best for their economy? Or, is a change in this policy potentially more detrimental?
It seems like the natural thing to do is to eventually get rid of the one-child policy. I'm interested to see how Chinese parents will respond to this. I feel like limiting children has created a culture that knows how costly children can be and may continue a culture of only having a few children. When it becomes detrimental will be if parents start to have many kids and in return increase poverty. I have no idea how birth control works in that country if it even exists for everyone so that could play a factor in how many children are produced. It's something that will be hard to predict because I think it goes into culture and attitudes in their country.
ReplyDeleteI think if China is seeing a decline in its number of workers, lifting this policy is a good idea. I was against this policy from the beginning just from a basic freedoms standpoint, so I am happy to hear that they will possibly be getting rid of this old policy.
ReplyDeleteWhat an interesting policy! Nowhere in the world has such a policy enforcing population growth been around for this amount of time. Until the 1960s Mao and other leaders encouraged families to have as many children possible in order to increase the amount of workers. This was especially important during The Great Leap Forward, where Mao pushed for China to a global producer of agriculture and high demand resources such as iron and other metals. The population grew drastically within only 15 to 20 years. From 1949 to 1976 the population increased from 540 million to 940 million! Starting in the 1970s the government started addressing this issue and enforced the one child policy during the late 1970. By 1980 the policy was in full force.
ReplyDeleteToday the population is no longer an issue. The problem that caused the policy to be enacted is now solved! I believe the policy should be slowly faded out. If not, China is going to face major cultural and economic problems for years to come.
Its an interesting policy and quite viable during this time. As of now the workforce is shrinking and labor is becoming more expensive. We can tie this idea with this article. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578245241751969774.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LEADStoryTop
ReplyDeleteIt talks about how China is losing some of its business partly because of rising labor costs. And this policy would fix this problem in the future if the population goes high enough to lower average labor costs.
This is one of the more shocking policies i have ever seen. I am glad to hear it may be coming to an end and i think that it is for the best. I understand why this was first implemented from an economic standpoint but i still never thought it was the right thing to do.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Jory, I didn't know that China had that policy and learning of it really shocked me. I also agree with Jory that I understand the necessity of this policy, but I don't think it was the right way to handle the economic situation.
ReplyDeleteI would be cautious about completely abandoning this policy. I would suggest loosening up the restrictions to allow for more childbirth, but not eliminating restrictions entirely. I would be nervous that this would create another population problem a generation or two down the road, leading to the need to bring back the one child policy. China should look to gradually change their population control policies to create a sustainable, stable population growth rate, rather than one that has drastic fluctuations from generation to generation.
ReplyDeleteTo throw some numbers in the mix, according to statisticians, “by the year 2040, the number of Chinese older than 60 [will] be 411 million, up from 171 million today. The working population — people between the ages of 20 and 60 — would drop to 696 million from 817 million today,” (Wong 2012). This is to say that the ratio of young-old is currently 4.78-1 and is estimated to be as low as 1.69-1 in the year 2040. I propose that, assuming technology to be moving to the rural areas, rural-to-urban emigration may help to provide a partial solution for the workforce.
ReplyDeleteI think this policy could go either way depending on what the rest of the world does about the global economy. If the world can figure out their financial problems and create substantial growth then it would benefit China to get rid of this policy because they would be able to do more work and make more money during the growth. However, if this global crisis continues to linger for years to come then having more children in China will only lead to more oppressive conditions for the people. So before China completely lifts this policy I think they should really examine the global market to see if the conditions will support the workforce.
ReplyDelete