Since we have been talking about how the Federal Reserve, I figured this would be great an opportunity to hear from the FED directly. This link will take you to a page where you can download the Chicago Fed Letter explaining an economic summery of 2012 and forecasts for 2013. The forecast says there is suppose to be a real GDP growth rate of 2.3% in 2013. It also mentions that the unemployment rate is expected to lower. Overall the Chicago FED believes we will experience more economic growth than we did in 2012. Do you agree, or do you believe this forecast is too optimistic?
Check out the chart on the first page of the report and pay attention to the different indexes and economic measures. Which do you believe is the most accurate and most useful?
I do agree that our economy is going to grow as long as Europe does not fall. Europe is extremely unstable right now and I do believe that our economy would be in a much better place than it is right now if the European nation was not going through so many struggles.
ReplyDeleteI do not want to be extremely negative, but the statistic, in broadly term, looks very contradictory. I do not understand how the GDP will arise to 2.3% when the net exports of goods and services, industrial production, and car and light truck sales will decrease their rate. However, I have to admit that the US's economy could improve progressively. Now, US faces a more complex economics problem, if we consider the interrelation an interdependence among the countries. Therefore, US also has to wait the outcome in Europe.
ReplyDeleteI also agree that US economy is in recovery process. Real residential investment shows that investor are gaining their confidence to invest and the unemployment rate is down are two good signs of a recovering economy.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the potential to have a 2.3% GDP growth is possible. If the unemployment rate continues to decrease, more people will have a higher disposable income, and thus will pump more money into the economy. However I also think that the fiscal cliff issues have the potential to knock out any predicted growth in GDP and lead us back into a small recession. Both sides are possible.
ReplyDeleteI can believe it. Mostly because I don't think it is overly optimistic. A healthy GDP growth rate is somewhere between 3%-5%. So although anything positive sounds to good to be true at this point, I think 2.3% is reasonable.
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